Valuation
Value $30 Price $22.5. Underpriced by 25%.
현재 시장기대치와 스토리
현재 가격에 반영된 가정
매출성장 향후 5년간 연 2% , 타깃 영업이익률 14%(Converge 5년) .
스토리
성장 5%, 이익률 15%. 이익률에 민감해서 밸류에이션 어려움
시뮬레이션
변수 범위
- 성장: 0%~5%, Uniform
- 이익률: 12%~16%, Triangular, 최빈값 14%
- 자본비용: 4.25%, 정규분포. 시그마 0.5%
Pricing
- PE: 41
- PB: 1.4
- P/TangB: 3.8
- PS: 1
- P/CF:
- P/FCF: 6.2
- EV/Sales: 1.8
- EV/EBITDA: 6
- EV/EBIT: 12.7
- EV: 21.2B
기타
소스
Value Screen Feb2020
자료(시트)
Description
Company Description
Vistra Energy Corp. operates as a power company. The Company offers electricity and power generation, distribution, and transmission solutions. Vistra Energy serves customers in the United States.
Extended Company Description (Source: Hoover’s Inc., a Dun & Bradstreet Company)
OVERVIEW
Spun out of the bankruptcy restructuring of Energy Future Holdings, Vistra Energy came to life as an independent energy company in late 2016. It primarily oversees operations of retail electricity business, TXU Energy, and electricity generation business, Luminant. TXU Energy is the largest retailer of electricity in Texas with approximately 1.7 million customers. Luminant is a significant generator of electricity in Texas, dispatching its power through Texas’ ERCOT organization, which manages the flow of electric power throughout 75% of the state. In late 2017, Vistra agreed to acquire Dynegy, an electricity generation company with some 27,000 MW of capacity.
Operations
Vistra Energy operates two business segments: Wholesale Generation and Retail Electricity, each contributes about 50% to overall revenue.
The Wholesale segment is comprised mostly of Luminant whose primary activity is the generation of electricity through its more than 50 power plants. It has capacity to produce nearly 17 MW of electricity, with 10 MW from lignite/coal and nuclear facilities and the remaining from natural gas-power plants. The segment also manages wholesale energy sales and purchases, commodity risk management activities, fuel production, and fuel logistics management.
The Retail Electricity segment is comprised largely of TXU Energy, which serves 1.7 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Texas. Its service area is mainly a competitive, rather than a state-regulated, market, allowing it to adjust contract pricing according to supply and demand forces. It is one of the state’s largest provider of retail electric power.
Geographic Reach
Vistra operations almost completely within the state of Texas, although that will change should the merger with Dynegy consummate. Vistra operates about a dozen power generation facilities in northeast Texas and a few others in West Texas. The power it generates flows into ERCOT, a state-appointed manager of Texas’ deregulated electricity market, and from there is dispatched to customers throughout the state. Vistra’s TXU Energy business operates retail electricity sales in major markets such as in and around Houston and Dallas, TX and smaller markets in Corpus Christi and the Rio Grande Valley.
Sales and Marketing
Vistra’s Luminant power generation business sells to the Texas ERCOT entity, which then dispatches power to end users. The TXU Energy segment operates in a competitive marketplace and attempts to differentiate itself from competitors through customer service, brand-name recognition, and by offering a variety of contract options.
Financial Performance
Because Vistra emerged as part of the bankruptcy restructuring of Energy Future Holdings (EFH), comparative financials are not readily available. However, its business units, when operating as part of EFH, generated between $5 billion and $6 billion in annual revenue in 2014 and 2015.
Through the first three quarters of 2017, Vistra produced revenue of $4.5 billion and $325 million in net income.
Vistra began 2017 with $843 million in cash.
Strategy
While Vistra contends with the overarching effort to emerge from its previous parent’s bankruptcy, it also tends to both operational and acquisitive strategies.
Operationally, it believes that the integrated nature of its business provides competitive advantages and growth opportunities. As both a generator and seller of electricity it garners the reliability and stability of revenue and profits from its Luminant business while pursuing margin opportunities with its TXU retail business. This integration reduces Vistra’s exposure to commodity price movements and offers prospects for greater earnings stability.
On the acquisition front, Vistra showed an early and large appetite. About one year after emerging from EFH’s bankruptcy it announced plans to acquire for $1.7 billion Dynegy, a very large power generation company with operations in Texas as well as the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US states. The acquisition will accrue to Vistra geographic diversification, greater power generation scale (that nears 40,000 GW of capacity), and a mix of generation sources that shrinks heavy dependency on coal in favor of natural gas.
Mergers and Acquisitions
In late 2017, Vistra announced plans to acquire Dynegy, a leading provider of electric power in the US, for $1.7 billion.
