Valuation
Value $157 Price $99. Underpriced by 40%.
현재 시장기대치와 스토리
현재 가격에 반영된 가정
매출성장 향후 5년간 연 5% , 타깃 영업이익률 30%(Converge 5년) . 바이오시밀러 우려.
스토리
기존 약물 Soliris에서 Ultomiris로 판매연계가 전례 없이 잘 되고 있으며, 바이오시밀러 방어도 잘 되는 듯. 과거 10년간 CAGR 20%, 최근까지도 꾸준히 연 20%성장.
이 성장률을 미래에는 10%로 잡고, 영업이익률은 조금 낮춰 40%로 가정.
시뮬레이션
추후 해볼 것. 영업이익률에 민감.
Pricing
- PE: 10.7
- PB: 2
- P/TangB: 7.6
- PS: 4.5
- P/CF: 5.6
- P/FCF: 15
- EV/Sales: 4.4
- EV/EBITDA:
- EV/EBIT: 10.3
- EV: 21.9B
기타
소스
Value Screen Feb2020
자료(시트)
Description
Company Description
Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, researches and develops proprietary immunoregulatory compounds for the treatment of autoimmune and cardiovascular diseases. The Company develops C5 complement inhibitors and apogens which are two classes of potential therapeutic compounds designed to selectively target specific disease-causing segments of the immune system.
Extended Company Description (Source: Hoover’s Inc., a Dun & Bradstreet Company)
OVERVIEW
Alexion Pharmaceuticals develops drugs that inhibit immune system functions that cause rare hematology, nephrology, neurology, and metabolic disorders. Its primary product, monoclonal antibody Soliris, treats two rare genetic blood disorders: paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). Soliris was also approved in Europe, Japan, and the US to treat the rare refractory generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) in adults. Other products include enzyme replacement therapies Strensiq, the first approved treatment for hypophosphatasia in children, and Kanuma, a treatment for lysosomal acid lipase deficiency. International sales make up more than half of Alexion’s revenue.
Operations
Soliris, which accounts for 85% of Alexion’s revenue, was the first treatment for PNH, a rare disorder in which the death of red blood cells can bring on conditions including blood clotting and organ damage. It has been called the world’s most expensive drug, costing about a half-million dollars per year.
Alexion also has a pipeline of clinical-stage products targeting rare autoimmune diseases, kidney and other organ failure, and metabolic disorders. In late 2018, lead candidate Ultomiris was granted early US approval for the treatment of PNH.
Geographic Reach
Boston-based Alexion operates a biopharmaceuticals manufacturing facility in Georgia, research and development facilities in the US (Massachusetts and Connecticut), supply chain and quality operations in Dublin, and sales offices in Switzerland. The company’s international headquarters are based in Zurich.
Soliris is approved for the treatment of PNH in the US, Europe, Japan, and other markets; it is approved for the treatment of refractory gMG in Japan.
The US is Alexion’s single largest market, accounting for nearly half of total sales. Europe and Asia account for about 25% and 10% of sales, respectively.
Sales and Marketing
Alexion markets its products through a specialized direct sales force, which targets customers including hospitals, physicians, pharmacies, and other health care facilities. The company also sells to distributors, hospital buying groups, and government agencies.
In addition to using its own sales force, Alexion markets its products in collaboration with partners.
Financial Performance
Alexion’s revenue has been on the rise since Soliris hit the market, gaining traction as it and the firm’s other products are introduced into new territories. Overall, sales between 2014 and 2018 are up 85%.
In 2018 revenue rose 13% to $4.1 billion as all three marketed products had higher sales. Soliris sales increased 13% that year while Strensiq sales increased 40%. Kanuma, which brings in just 2% of total revenue, saw its sales increase by 40%.
Net income, which has risen for the past few years, dropped 82% to $77.6 million. Operating expenses, fueled by an acquired research and development-related expense, spiked in 2018.
Cash at the end of 2018 increased $782.9 million to $1.4 billion. Cash from operations added $426 million to the coffers, while cash from investing activities contributed $470.5 million, mostly from sales of various securities. Financing used $102.4 million to repay debt.
Strategy
In recent years Alexion has restructured its operations, which included cutting more than 20% of its workforce, moving its headquarters from New Haven, Connecticut, to Boston, and shifting its focus from ultra-rare diseases to rare diseases. The company has closed facilities and offices, including a manufacturing plant in Rhode Island. Additionally, Alexion scrapped a number of partnership development deals. The moves are intended to rebuild the firm’s product pipeline as it prepares for Soliris — its primary source of revenue — to lose patent protection.
To that end, Alexion is focused on its lead candidate, ULTOMIRIS, while reducing its investment in other candidates. ULTOMIRIS is expected to hit the market in 2019, and Alexion plans to transition the majority of its Soliris customers to the new product, which should help protect its market position.
Because Alexion focuses on treating rare diseases, it struggles to build up a wide base of products and patients. As such the firm is pursuing growth through acquisitions, licensing deals, and partnerships to further diversity its rare disease treatment line-up. In 2018 and 2019 the firm acquired Swedish firm Wilson Therapeutics and Boston-based biotech Syntimmune. Alexion agreed to acquire Achillion Pharmaceuticals in 2019.
Mergers and Acquisitions
In 2018 Alexion acquired Swedish firm Wilson Therapeutics for $855 million. That deal furthered its operations in rare diseases: Wilson’s lead candidate is under development for the treatment of Wilson disease (a rare disease that affects the liver and neurological system).
In an even larger deal that year, the company acquired fellow Boston-based biotech Syntimmune. The purchase is valued at up to $1.2 billion, including potential milestone payments. Sytimmune is developing a treatment for autoimmune hemolytic anemia.
In 2019 the company agreed to acquire Achillion Pharmaceuticals for some $930 million to expand its drug portfolio. Both companies develop rare-disease drugs by targeting a specific immune pathway, giving them similar drug development pipelines. Achillion has candidates in development to treat a rare kidney disease and a rare blood disorder.
Company Background
In 1992, Alexion was founded in New Haven, CT. The company’s initial public offering was in 1996, under the ticker symbol ALXN.
